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Can stocks climb out of their three-month hole?


The Wall Street bronze Bull looks out to an empty Broadway in Lower Manhattan, New York, early August 28, 2011 as Hurricane Irene hits the city and Tri State area with rain and high winds. New York City resembled a ghost town after 370,000 people were told to evacuate flood-prone areas, including near Wall Street and at Coney Island, and mass transport was shut down. AFP PHOTO/Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP via Getty Images)

Stan Honda | Afp | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Spooky October
Major U.S. indexes inched up Tuesday, but ended October in the red — giving them a three-month losing streak. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei jumping around 2.2% a day after the Bank of Japan relaxed its yield curve control policy. South Korea’s Kospi climbed about 1% as the country’s October exports rose 5.1% year on year, its first rise in 13 months.

Watch Janet alongside Jerome
There’s virtually zero chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting later today. But Chair Jerome Powell’s comments may still have the force to move markets. And market watchers might want to pay more attention to the U.S. Treasury Department’s announcement of the size, and the duration mix, of its upcoming Treasury auction.

China’s high-level meetings
China concluded a high-level financial meeting Tuesday, where the country signaled support for property developers and resolving local government debt problems. The twice-a-decade financial conference tends to sketch out long-term policy. Separately, U.S. President Joe Biden will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the U.S., announced the White House.

Next year will be better
AMD reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations. But the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter sales forecast came in at $6.1 billion, below the $6.37 billion analysts were looking for. Nonetheless, AMD thinks 2024 will prove a better year for its artificial intelligence chip business — the firm’s one of the few chipmakers capable of manufacturing the high-end chips that generative AI relies on.

[PRO] A 117-year-old AI company
There’s an old technology company that was founded in 1906, and which has become a household name. But traders should “rethink” their preconceptions of it, according to one investor. The 117-year-old company is “becoming an AI company. They’re becoming a cloud company,” he said.

The bottom line

The last day of October was sweet for markets, but it was more trick than treat for the rest of the month.

Major indexes managed to finish the day in the green. The S&P 500 rose 0.65% — pulling it out of correction territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.38% and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.48% higher.

But this final sprint couldn’t help stocks outrun a dismal October, which was haunted by the 10-year Treasury yield breaching the 5% level for the first time in 16 years. On a monthly basis, the S&P fell 2.2%, the Dow 1.4% and the Nasdaq 2.8%. All three indexes declined for three consecutive months — the first time for the S&P and Dow since March 2020.

In fact, this is just the ninth time since 1928 the S&P has fallen consecutively from August to October, according to Bespoke Investment Group. But history presents a silver lining: The last two times the S&P fell during those months, it rallied 3.42% and 5.99% in the following November, the group said.

The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, expected Wednesday, might give stocks another boost. “If the Fed comes out and says they’re probably done for the year, gives hints that they’re feeling more dovish, that could be one thing that really helps,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird.

And stocks certainly do need help. Even the Magnificent Seven stocks that led most — if not all — the gains in the S&P this year have been struggling in October. Tesla, most significantly, is down 20.5% for the month, while Nvidia has dropped more than 7% and Alphabet’s 5.8% lower. Only Microsoft and Amazon have advanced for the month.

But nothing lasts forever: Even cold November rain may wash away the bitter taste of the past three months.





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