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Asia markets up, Japan business sentiment improves

Soft landing could fuel 15% rally in global equities, HSBC says

Global equities look situated for a significant rally in the new year should central banks begin easing monetary policy and the Federal Reserve manage a soft landing, according to HSBC.

“We expect global equity markets to climb higher and forecast 15% upside by end-2024,” said Alastair Pinder in a note to clients. “But, against a backdrop of slowing economic growth and declining interest rates, we think market breadth will increasingly narrow, with a large proportion of the market treading water, while US supremacy will likely continue.”

In recent instances where the Fed has engineered a soft landing, the S&P 500 has rallied 22% on average between the pause in hikes, and six months after the bank’s begun cutting, he noted.

Given this setup, Pinder favors technology and consumer discretionary sectors, believing that risks look better priced following the recent pullback in equities.

— Samantha Subin

Fed’s Goolsbee says ‘golden path’ is still possible

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday a soft landing is still on the table as the central bank seeks to combat inflation without hurting the economy significantly.

“Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path … that we got inflation down without a recession,” Goolsbee said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

 Goolsbee said the drop in price pressures might equal the fastest decline in inflation in the last century.

— Yun Li

U.S. crude falls below $78 a barrel to lowest level since July

U.S. crude prices have fallen nearly 4% to their lowest level since July, as weak economic data overshadows concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could erupt into a broader regional conflict.

West Texas Intermediate was down $3.09, or 3.82%, at $77.73 a barrel, while Brent fell $3.19, or 3.75%, to $81.99 a barrel, both at their lowest prices since July.

The drop came after China’s exports fell more than expected in October, indicating softening global demand.

Spencer Kimball

Market rally may be fleeting, Wolfe Research says

Wolfe Research strategist Rob Ginsberg noted that the early November rally could soon stall out, if the trading action from earlier in the year is any indication.

“Each rally since the July peak has stalled out before making a fresh 1-month high, before rolling over to a new 1-month low…the definition of a downtrend,” Ginsberg said.

To be sure, he also noted that some momentum indicators “inflected positive for all of the indices (last week), and today we see it being confirmed at the stock level.”

— Fred Imbert

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